Alex Smith vs. Aaron Rodgers Revisited

In April of 2005, the San Francisco 49ers had the first overall pick in the draft.  And, at the time, they were short a starting Quarterback.  What better time to find one than when you have the first overall pick?  In 2005, there were two possibilities…Alex Smith from Utah and Aaron Rodgers from Cal.  Rodgers had better throwing stats, played in a more pro-style offense, and grew up as a 49ers fan (wearing a Joe Montana shirt under his jersey every game).  Alex Smith could run, had gaudy stats as well, but played in Urban Meyer’s spread offense. 

There were various opinions on who should be first overall.  Early consensus had the Niners taking Rodgers, then Braylon Edwards' name made the rounds, and eventually Alex Smith seemed to be the pick.  Ultimately, the Niners decided they had to take a Quarterback of the future...and that left them with these two options.

Here’s what ESPN’s analysts had to say about Alex Smith before the draft:

Arm strength is adequate but not good.  He can make most of the NFL throws but won't be able to fit the ball into tight spots that many starting NFL quarterbacks can.  If there's one facet of his accuracy that is inconsistent it is the deep ball.  Ball occasionally will sail and he'll need to improve his timing in order to be successful throwing downfield in the NFL.  He spent most of his time in the shotgun and in a spread offense.  He will need to learn to read defenses while dropping from under center.  He also will need to prove that he's not a "system QB", as he played in an offense that was wide-open and made a lot of the reads very easy for him.  He also will have a big adjustment transitioning from the mid-major college level (Mountain West Conference) to the NFL.  However, there isn't a more intelligent quarterback in this class and few are as competitive.  Smith is a fine athlete, he has the frame to get bigger and he has enough arm strength to get by at the next level if he does everything else correctly.  In our opinion, Smith ranks just below Cal's Aaron Rodgers as the second quarterback in the 2005 class.  He likely would have been the fourth quarterback selected (behind Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger) a year ago, but in what is a noticeably weak top of the board in this year's draft Smith could very likely be a top-10 selection.

And here’s what they had to say about Aaron Rodgers:

He has outstanding arm strength.  Has one of the strongest arms in this year's quarterback class.  Shows the ability to make all the necessary throws in the NFL.  Has great zip on his deep out route and shows the ability to fit the ball into tight spots.  He has terrific fundamentals and mechanics.  Also has very good touch and timing.  Shows the consistent ability to lay the ball in between the linebackers and safeties in coverage.  Impressive deep accuracy.  Will also show the ability to take some velocity off of his underneath throws.  He is poised in the pocket and isn't afraid to wait until the last possible second to deliver the ball while taking a blow.  He gets set quickly and does a fine job of seeing the entire field.  His ability to make progression reads and look off receivers has improved greatly to the point where he is among the elite in this class in those facets.  He has terrific awareness in the pocket.  Rodgers doesn't have great size and he could stand to get stronger, but he did measure in at 6-2, 223 pounds at the combine, which is at least adequate.  There has to be a minor concern regarding the wide-open quarterback friendly system that Rodgers played in at Cal, as it makes reads easier on quarterbacks and it also balloons their numbers with a lot of short passes that are turned into long gains.  Jeff Tedford is, however, an excellent quarterback groomer and he has done a terrific job with Rodgers' mechanics.   In our opinion, Rodgers is the most complete quarterback in the 2005 draft class and he should be the first overall quarterback taken - likely somewhere in the top-five.

So, yeah, consensus was pretty much that Rodgers was the better prospect to Smith, but that both should be very good.  At the time, I was not an Alex Smith fan.  Things like “arm strength is not good” and “ball will occasionally sail” set off alarms to me.  Rodgers had the arm strength, the accuracy, and the pocket poise that I love when looking at QBs.  And, really, all these turned out to be pretty true.  Rodgers has shown elite arm strength and accuracy in his NFL career so far.  Alex Smith has shown limitations with his accuracy, especially deep and to the sideline, and the ball sails on him.  And their careers have been different, too.  Rodgers has won an MVP, a Super Bowl, and a Super Bowl MVP award.  Alex Smith once had “We Want Carr” chanted at him by a home crowd.  Yes, David Carr.  Rough.

Alex Smith was also thrown to the wolves immediately, forced to start 9 games as a rookie for a terrible team.  Aaron Rodgers got to sit on the bench for three years, learning from one of the best QBs to ever play the game.  Alex Smith had no weapons to throw to, had a different offensive coordinator every season, had no protection, and was put into just a horrific situation.  Aaron Rodgers has loads of top targets to throw to, has been kept upright, and has had continuity of leadership at the top.  So, yeah, Aaron Rodgers may have been a better pick for the Niners to make in 2005…but would it have really mattered?  Would Rodgers have done any better than Smith fared in his first seasons in San Francisco had he been the pick?

Last season, under competent leadership, and with talent around him, Alex Smith started to look like a competent starting QB in the NFL.  He finished the season with a 61.3% completion rate, for 3,144 yards, 17 TDs and only 5 INTs.  He won a shootout of a playoff game against the Saints, and led the Niners to OT of the NFL Championship Game before special teams blunders cost him a chance to start in his first Super Bowl.  Aaron Rodgers won the MVP last year, but bowed out in his first playoff game.  This year, in the first game of the season, Smith and Rodgers faced off in Green Bay, with Smith and the Niners getting the better of Rodgers and the Packers.  Smith was the better QB on the day too, completing 20 of 26 passes for 211 yards and 2 TDs with no INTs (a 125.6 QB Rating, and a 83.5 Total QBR).  Rodgers, meanwhile, threw for big numbers, but wasn’t all that spectacular, going 30 of 44 for 303 yards, 2 TDs and 1 costly INT (a 93.3 QB Rating, and a 55.1 Total QBR).  Smith outplayed Rodgers, and the Niners won the game.

Now, I’m not here to claim that Smith has become the better QB to Rodgers.  The Niners defense is a bear, and will make any QB have a rough day.  Rodgers was still very good, and nearly brought the Packers back.  However, it was easy to see that the gap between Smith and Rodgers appeared to have narrowed.  Alex Smith will never have Aaron Rodgers’ arm strength or his down field accuracy.  However, he doesn’t have to in order to find success in this league.  Alex Smith is still a very smart QB, who takes care of the ball, doesn’t turn it over, makes smart decisions, and can win a game with his smart passes or his legs.  Maybe coaching and situation plays a bigger role in the “success” or “bust” of a draft pick that we like to let on.  Everyone dumped on Alex while he was under all those incompetent coaching staffs earlier in his career (I did as well).  Now that he has a legitimately competent coach and coaching staff around him, Smith has been winning games and leading his team to new heights.  Its not hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers might have been considered a “bust” had the Niners grabbed him…simply due to the crappy situation San Francisco was at the time.

There is still a lotta season left to go.  But at least, after one game, maybe the gap between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers has closed just a little bit.  At least, this Niners fan certainly hopes so!