The Oakland A’s: A Look at Expectations

The Oakland A’s just completed a sweep of the crude Cleveland Indians, putting them an astonishing 16 games over .500 on the season, 1 game up on the top Wild Card spot in the AL, and only 4 games behind division (and AL) leading Texas.  This is incredible for a team that was expected to be, well, terrible.  The A’s were expected to contend for the 1^st overall draft pick this season…and instead has thrust themselves into contention with excellent pitching and surprising power up and down their lineup.

I’m loving it!  The A’s are the ultimate underdog, and every time someone hates on them, says their run is over, they come roaring out and win another game!  Incredible.

So, today, I thought it would be fun to look back at various national websites’ preseason projections, previews, and power rankings to see what they were saying about the boys in the green and gold heading into the season…

From ESPN’s first Power Rankings (posted after the A’s opening series in Japan):

29/30:  A's fans should savor the team's league-leading run differential (+1) because come Wednesday and Thursday, reality will set in as actual good teams start to take the field in earnest.  (LINK)

 A little zinger from ESPN, making fun of their +1 run differential, and ranking them second to last in the entire league.  The A’s currently sport a +51 run differential and are 7^th in baseball by overall record.

From Grantland’s Team-by-team Season Preview:

They might not win much, might not score many runs, might not get much national attention. But the Oakland A's are going to be interesting this year. For that, they can thank Yoenis Cespedes…
 IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT
Big years for rookies Cespedes, Parker, and Brad Peacock, a successful Suzuki trade opens the door for Derek Norris to become a poor man's Mickey Tettleton, continued strides for Weeks and McCarthy, and a lot more good vibes than you'd expect from a team that's a long shot to finish above .500, let alone battle elite division mates Texas and L.A.
 IF EVERYTHING GOES WRONG
The A's plan to move to San Jose gets pushed back further, pushing their supposed window for contention back even more and triggering another set of go-for-it-in-four-years trades. There's logic to picking a timeline and trying to build a team to contend once you've reached the logical point in that timeline to do so. But at a certain point, wait till next year (or maybe even wait till 2015) starts to get a little depressing.  (LINK)

No official ranking by Grantland, but they did seem pretty down on the A’s.  Their upside look still called them a long shot to finish over .500.  The A’s, as I said previously, are currently 16 games over .500. 

From Fox Sports Preseason Power Rankings:

28/30:  The current 3-4-5 hitters for Oakland are Coco Crisp, Seth Smith and Kurt Suzuki. Even the Yoenis Cespedes signing can't overcome that. (LINK)

Coco is now our leadoff hitter, and playing quite well when healthy (9 HRs, 29 SBs, .714 OPS).  Our middle of the lineup consists of Josh Reddick (27 HRs, 69 RBI), Yoenis Cespedes (.298 Avg., 16 HRs, 63 RBI), and Chris Carter (12 HRs in only 47 games; 30 RBI, .952 OPS).  Seth Smith has 12 HRs, Brandon Moss has 14 HRs, Jonny Gomes has 15 HRs, Brandon Inge has 11 HRs and 50 RBIs.  Needless to say, this offense has been far more potent than anyone gave them credit for.

From Yahoo Sports Preseason Power Rankings:

21/30:  Pitchers must have figured him out; Yoenis Cespedes hasn't homered in a week. (LINK)

Yahoo was actually a little higher than most on the A’s, putting them at 21 of 30 teams.  Their little quip about Cespedes has clearly been rendered ridiculous (see stats I posted above).

From Sports Illustrated Preseason Power Rankings:

29/30:  The A's received a plethora of prospects this offseason in exchange for their arbitration-eligible talent, meaning the club should be primed to compete if/when their new ballpark opens in a couple years. In the short term, however, Oakland has taken a significant step back. (LINK)

They did give us some love for our prospect grabs…although failed to recognize how soon many of these guys we traded for would be ready.  Jarrod Parker and Tom Milone have both been rotation mainstays, and have been part of the second best pitching staff (by ERA) in the American League (3^rd overall in MLB).  The A’s, of course, have not taken a significant step back…last season they won 74 games all season…today, they won their 73^rd game already this season…with 32 games remaining this season.  Seems like they will be taking a significant step FORWARD this year.

From Bleacher Report’s Preseason Power Rankings:

28/30:  If Yoenis Cespedes lives up to his potential, the A's are going to have a bona-fide superstar.  But that's a big "if," and the rest of this A's team leaves a lot to be desired. The only guy who's a lock for a good season is Brandon McCarthy. Everyone else would be lucky to start on another club.  (LINK)

The big “if” appears to have happened.  The rest of the team has lived up to him as well.  The rest of their rotation that “would be lucky to start on another club”… Jarrod Parker:  8-7, 3.52 ERA, 2.7 WAR, 104 K; Tom Milone:  11-9, 3.73 ERA, 2.0 WAR, 117 K; Bartolo Colon:  10-9, 3.43 ERA, 2.7 WAR, 91 K before being busted for testosterone…oops; A.J. Griffin:  3-0, 2.42 ERA, 1.7 WAR; Travis Blackley:  5-3, 3.50 ERA, 1.5 WAR; Dan Straily:  1-0, 3.18 ERA in 3 starts; Brett Anderson:  2-0, 0.64 ERA, 11 K in 2 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery.  I’m thinking the rest of the clubs in this league would kill for any number of these pitchers…except maybe Colon now.

From Q’s Adventures Preseason MLB Predictions:

AL West: Anaheim (2nd: Texas, 3rd: Oakland, 4th: Seattle)  (LINK)

Yes, even yours truly was not high on the A’s.  I didn’t think they’d compete this year.  No one did!  I had them finishing 3^rd in the West…and while I didn’t say so in the preview, fully expected us to finish under .500 (although not as bad as competing for a top draft pick).  The A’s currently have the 3^rd best record in the AL, lead the Wild Card race, are in 2^nd place in the West…5 games ahead of Anaheim, who is in 3^rd, and only 4 games behind division (and AL) leading Texas.

Needless to say, this has been an incredible, and unexpected season for the A’s!  Reddick-Cespedes-Carter looks like it could be a rather fearsome 3-4-5 middle of the lineup for the next few years for Oakland.  Their young rotation, led by Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, and Tom Milone, and supplemented by youngsters Dan Straily, A.J. Griffin, plus many other top prospects (Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Sonny Gray) that could step in and be awesome at any time…figure to have this rotation cruising along as one of the best in baseball for the foreseeable future!  Maybe this A’s team won’t just be a flash in the pan.  Maybe they are set up to compete consistently over the next handful of seasons.

Whether they end up making the playoffs or not, the A’s have made this an incredibly fun baseball season.  Between their walkoff wins, their amazing pitching, their young kids coming through, the personalities in the clubhouse, and a highly competent manager…its been a joy to be an A’s fan this year!  Here’s to hoping they keep proving everyone wrong…right into the postseason and beyond!