Revolution in Egypt

So, I’m guessing I shouldn’t head out to Egypt anytime soon.

Background

If you haven’t heard, there’s been pretty much a country-wide protest of the government in Egypt over the last couple weeks. It started on January 25th, and is still continuing today. On the 25th, protests took place in cities across Egypt, including Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and Ismailiya. Thousands protested in Cairo, with 15,000 alone occupying Tahrir Square, and 20,000 in various locations across Alexandria. Basically, people are tired of the rule of President Hosni Mubarak.

Grievances for Egyptian protesters have focused on legal and political issues including police brutality, state of emergency laws, lack of free elections and free speech, and corruption, as well as economic issues including high unemployment, food price inflation, and low minimum wages. Demands from protest organizers included rights of freedom and justice, the end of the Hosni Mubarak regime, and a new government that represents the interests of the Egyptian people.

Mubarek came to power after the assassination of President Anwar El Sadat in 1981. Since then, he has ruled the country under emergency law. Under the law, police powers are extended, constitutional rights suspended, censorship is legalized, and the government may imprison individuals indefinitely and without reason. Of course, this can lead to political corruption as well. Activists and political opponents have been imprisoned without trial. Media has been censored prior to elections. Candidates have been banned. Basically, its not really democracy. The current regime uses the “threat of terrorism” to continue Emergency Law.

Protests

So, the protests started with the previously mentioned demonstrations on January 25th. The government responded with deploying riot police with tear gas and water cannons to subdue the crowds. However, the protests have been so massive that the police have been easily overrun. The President enacted a nighttime curfew on the country…which was ignored. In a last ditch effort to quell protests from organizing, Egypt’s internet access was almost completely cut off, Blackberry and text messaging was cut off, and radio and other media were heavily censored. However, this has not stopped people from getting the word out. Egyptians circumvented the restrictions by variously using the Tor anonymity network, smartphones as modems, land lines with dial-up modems to make international calls to access the internet, fax machines in universities and embassies, and even ham radio.

The protests have happened every day, and are growing in number, putting a real pressure on the government of Egypt to enact real change and get their country back and working again. It is estimated that during the day on the 1st, over 4 million protesters took to the streets throughout the country…including upwards of 2 million in Cairo. Violence is sporatic, and the military, brought in to help the police contain the protests, has seemed uninterested in getting violent with the protesters…a sign that maybe Mubarek is losing the military’s backing. However, there has been some violence…leading to an estimated 300 deaths since the protests started, and another 3,000 injuries.

Response

It does appear that real change may be on its way in Egypt. On January 29, Mubarak dissolved his government and appointed military figure and former head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Omar Suleiman as Vice-President in an attempt to quell dissent. Mubarak asked aviation minister and former chief of Egypt's Air Force, Ahmed Shafik, to form a new government. On January 31, President Mubarak swore in his new cabinet and told the new government to preserve subsidies, control inflation and provide more jobs. Finally, in the latest step towards ending the protests, today Mubarek stated that he would stay in office until the end of his term in September of this year, and then would not stand for re-election. However, his opposition is skeptical over Mubarek keeping this promise down the road, and are still asking for his immediate resignation. Either way, change is on its way in Egypt.

What It Means

It will be very interesting to see what a change in power in Egypt will do to foreign relations with Egypt. Egypt is our closest ally in the Muslim world (well, possibly Saudi Arabia, but Egypt is up there). Mostly, this is due to the fact that Mubarek’s government is a secular government, not an Islamic one. This is key, as the US has been having numerous problems in the Islamic world with Islamic Governments (Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran to name a few). However, the new government that occurs in Mubarek’s wake won’t necessarily be an Islamic one. Best case scenario is a true democratic government where all voices are heard and represented. But it puts the US in an odd situation, as relations with Egypt have been decent with Mubarek in charge, but they cannot support such corruption, or any violent response to the protests.

Egypt is a Major Ally of the U.S. (a designation given to close allies who have strategic working relationships with US armed forces but are not members of NATO). They have been a Major Ally since 1989, when the designation was created…and Mubarek has been in power the entire time they’ve been considered a Major Ally. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact this revolution has on our foreign relations with Egypt. At this point, we just do not know.

In the end, this is an interesting time in the Middle East. A real revolution is occurring, and we are witnessing it. The people are demanding change, in a mostly non-violent way, and things are changing. It’s encouraging to see people stand up to corruption. Let’s just hope that it does not lead to more corruption.