Potential 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates

Note: This is an overly long political post. It's conservative in nature, as you might guess from the title. If this isn't your cup of tea, feel free to skip. However, if you want to know a little bit about who might oppose Obama in the next Presidential election, this is as good a place as any to start!

Well, being as how we're already a full month and change into 2011, clearly the 2012 political season has already started! I know, I know, temper your excitement. Anyways, since others in the political world are already talking about it, I would be a terrible Political Science major if I didn't throw in my 2 cents (actually, this thing is long enough to be my $2.45). Anyways, I've decided to take my stab at the developing field for the Republican Nomination for the Presidency. The field is large and far reaching right now, as you might expect. However, I've tried to break it up to make more sense. First, I'll discuss the current frontrunners. Next will be my personal favorites. Those are the guys who I really think could do great things for this country...if given the opportunity. Then some other popular names being bandied about. After that I discuss a few Wild Cards who could really affect the race, even without being particularly viable candidates, and finally a few other names that I've heard talked about who I don't expect to run for one reason or another.

So, let's get on with it!

The Current Republican Frontrunners

Mitt Romney – One of the main contenders in 2008 is probably going to be back and at it in 2012, looking to build off of a strong run and good name recognition. Romney technically ended up in 3rd in the Republican primary last time around, but him and Huckabee were very, very close when Romney dropped out at 2008's CPAC conference.

We know plenty about Romney from last time around. He was governor of Massachusetts from 2003-2006...a feat for a Republican in a Democratic stronghold. Of course, he had to take some decidedly middle of the road stands on issues to get elected there, and even worked to pass a universal health care bill for the state. These stands he had to flip flop on some in the Republican primary last time around to make himself sound more conservative. At this point, its hard to pinpoint what he actually believes, being as he has a history of saying what it takes to get elected. Through his early political career he came across as a fiscal conservative (low spending, low taxes), while being tolerant of social issues (abortions rights and same sex marriage rights). As he shifted into "running for President" mode, his social stances "evolved" to appeal more to the conservative base.

As a candidate, I think he's a liability because of his shifting views. He can get strung up for changing his "beliefs" just to get elected. However, in the years since his failed Presidential run, he has stayed firm on his conservative beliefs, and as won over many social conservatives, which are important in the primaries. He is also known to base his positions off of data and research, not ideology, which would be a refreshing change. Be nice to have a President who actually researches the effects of what choices he has in front of him and will act accordingly. Romney is probably considered the front runner for the 2012 nomination right now, and will be a strong candidate in the primaries, should he choose to run.

Sarah Palin – Sarah Palin is probably the most popular and controversial name to pop up when you talk about potential candidates for the Republicans in 2012. She skyrocketed to fame when she was named John McCain's running mate in 2008. She is very popular among the social conservative crowd, and has been a fundraising boon for Republicans over the last few years. She scores strongly in conservative social values (guns, abortion, gay marriage, etc.). Where she falls short is the same issue people had with her in 2008...lack of experience. She was Alaska's governor for only a few years. Then she quit (which could be a political liability as well). That's it. We have really no idea how she'd govern or whether she can handle being the top dog. She has been ripped to shreds by the liberal media, and has become very defensive because of it...feeling the need to answer every single slight against her.

All in all, she'll be a force due to name recognition and strong conservative values alone. But in an election that will be Republicans trying to show that Obama was too inexperienced to lead us, and that's why things are bad, do you really want to put up someone even less experienced?

Mike Huckabee – Mike Huckabee is the former Governor of Arkansas, and ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, coming in second behind John McCain (and essentially tied with Mitt Romney). Currently he has a show on FOX News and also runs Huck PAC that gives money to socially conservative Republicans around the country.

Huckabee took over for Jim Guy Tucker as governor of Arkansas in 1996, when Tucker had to resign after being convicted of fraud. He was then re-elected twice, finally leaving the office in 2007. His time in office saw Huckabee govern as a middle of the roader financially. He did raise taxes on gas and diesel to pay for road improvements early in his first term. Late in his first term, though, he refused to raise taxes in the face of a budget shortfall. In 2005, Time magazine named him one of the five best governors in the U.S., writing "Huckabee has approached his state's troubles with energy and innovation". The Club for Growth accuses Huckabee of being a liberal in disguise, saying Huckabee increased state spending 65.3 percent (1996–2004) and supported five tax increases. The Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration states during Huckabee's tenure, taxes were cut ninety times for a decrease of $378 million dollars, while taxes were raised twenty-one times for an increase of $883 million dollars.

Needless to say, he is a polarizing figure on the right, at least fiscally. Where he really wins in the Right is with his constant and unwaivering social conservative views. He is staunchly pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and his Christian beliefs strongly influence his political beliefs. He does not accept the validity of evolution, however, he doesn't not reject it outright, saying "I believe there is a God who was active in the creation process. Now, how did he do it, and when did he do it, and how long did he take? I don't honestly know, and I don't think knowing that would make me a better or a worse president ... if anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it--I don't know how far they will march that back..." Not a bad take at all. However, his staunchly Christian-conservative social beliefs, while energizing the conservative base, is really a put off to the independents, and to more moderate Republicans (like myself).

I enjoy Huckabee's speaking ability, and think his political speeches in the last presidential campaign were brilliant. One of the reasons I started following his campaign before anyone else was. However, his extremely religious-right social stances give me pause...mostly because of how big a part of his candidacy they are! But his outside the box thinking in the fiscal arena, and his common sense approach to government are definitely plusses that will make Huckabee an immediate favorite should he decide to run.

My Personal Favorites

Ron Paul - Honestly, I could write an entire post just on Ron Paul, his ideas, and why I think they would work. But this post is long enough as it is, and I really just hoped to introduce those of you who are reading this to the candidates and their ideas. I'll probably write more on Ron Paul if he throws his hat into the ring for 2012.

Ron is a physician and Republican Congressman for the 14th congressional district of Texas. I think Ron Paul is my current favorite. He's run in the past. He's never done so well, mostly because his political positions and campaign platforms are pretty out there, and people fear change. However, he is a super smart dude. And the more I read about the issues with our money supply and the Fed and our currency issues...well, he's making a lot of sense, I'll say that much.

Where I really agree with Dr. Paul is his views on this country's money policy. Paul is not a fan of the Federal Reserve. Paul's opposition to the Fed is supported by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which holds that instead of containing inflation, the Federal Reserve, in theory and in practice, is responsible for causing inflation. Paul opposes inflation as an underhanded form of taxation, because it takes value away from the money that individuals hold without having to directly tax them. He sees the creation of the Federal Reserve, and its ability to "print money out of thin air" without commodity backing, as responsible for eroding the value of money, observing that "a dollar today is worth 4 cents compared to a dollar in 1913 when the Federal Reserve got in." He argues that hard money, such as backed by gold or silver, would prevent inflation, but adds, "I wouldn't exactly go back on the gold standard but I would legalize the constitution where gold and silver should and could be legal tender, which would restrain the Federal Government from spending and then turning that over to the Federal Reserve and letting the Federal Reserve print the money." Paul strongly supports legalization of parallel currencies, such as gold-backed notes issued from private markets and digital gold currencies, allowing individuals a choice whether to use sound money or to continue using fiat money. Paul believes this would restrain inflation, limit government spending, and eventually eliminate the ability of the Federal Reserve to "tax" Americans through inflation.

Now, these are really radical solutions to the economic problems in this country, but I personally believe they have a lot of merit. The U.S. can get away with just printing money to cover its debts because the World's currency standard is all based around the Dollar. Should that cease to be the case, well, lets just say we'd be in trouble. Our money would be worthless! Backing our money with something tangible, like gold, would help ensure that our money always has value. And allowing competing currencies in the U.S. would give people the chance to decide where they wanted to keep their wealth, and would also check the U.S. government's affinity for just spending what it wants and having the Fed print money to cover it.

Ron Paul is also an advocate of small government, really small government, which I agree with wholeheartedly. The government today is way too big. Dr. Paul takes this ideal to the extreme. He would eliminate many federal government agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Education, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the US Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Interstate Commerce Commission and the Internal Revenue Service, calling them "unnecessary bureaucracies." He would give most of these responsibilities to the states, citing the 10th Amendment. He comments on the Tenth Amendment, "States' rights simply means the individual states should retain authority over all matters not expressly delegated to the federal government in Article I of the Constitution."

Finally, Paul's stance on foreign policy is one of consistent nonintervention, which opposes war of aggression and entangling alliances with other nations. Paul advocates bringing troops home from U.S. military bases in Korea, Japan, and Europe, among others. He also proposes that the U.S. stop sending massive, unaccountable foreign aid. In an October 11, 2007 interview with The Washington Post, Paul said, "There's nobody in this world that could possibly attack us today... I mean, we could defend this country with a few good submarines. If anybody dared touch us we could wipe any country off of the face of the earth within hours. And here we are, so intimidated and so insecure and we're acting like such bullies that we have to attack third-world nations that have no military and have no weapons." The money saved from not intervening around the world could do so much good elsewhere, and really help us fiscally, that I have to say I agree with him here, too. I've been leaning more and more towards an isolationist foreign policy for the military recently, and Paul's thoughts on the issue make a lot of sense to me.

Honestly, I've become rather disillusioned with government these days. No matter who's in charge, Republicans or Democrats, it seems the same shit happens over and over. The party in power wants to spend a shitload of money on their pet projects, while the party out of power does their best to block it and get public support on their side. Nothing ever changes. Maybe a thinker like Dr. Paul, who has stuck to his beliefs his entire career and has some real ideas on how to fix this country is what we really need. Do I expect him to win? No. But his followers are growing in number every day. He is gathering a massive following, especially among the young in this country, so you never know!

However, there are some more traditional political figures that I could also support...if the country isn't yet ready to back the radical solutions being proposed by Dr. Paul.

Newt Gingrich – Newt Gingrich is a Republican legend, no doubt. Newt served as the 58th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999. In 1995, Time magazine selected him as the Person of the Year for his role in leading the Republican Revolution in the House, ending 40 years of the Democratic Party being in the majority. During his tenure as Speaker, he represented the public face of the Republican opposition to President Bill Clinton.

But that was a long time ago...why is he on this list now? Well, Newt has stayed in the public eye as a political correspondent and Republican Party spokesperson in recent years. He's been very outspoken of the big government types on both side of the aisle, chastising Republicans for not curbing spending when W was president, and now not doing enough to block Obama's wacky spending. Gingrich has been known to take stances that are different from the traditional Republican line on occasion as well. For instance, on immigration, he favors a strong border policy but also favors a guest worker program, and a flex-fuel mandate for cars sold in the U.S. Gingrich is a hard liner when it comes to limiting spending and the size of government...a nice throwback to what Republicans used to stand for. He has pushed for welfare reform, congressional term limits, tougher crime laws, a balanced budget, and limiting American military participation in UN missions.

His tenure in the House and as Speaker ended a little tumultuously, as both Democrats and Republicans started turning on him. Democrats filed a bunch of ethics complaints (all but one of which were dropped), and Republicans started trying to plan a coup to get a new Speaker installed. Eventually, Gingrich decided to just resign after the next election, pushed out by political games. Commenting on his departure, Gingrich said, "I'm willing to lead but I'm not willing to preside over people who are cannibals. My only fear would be that if I tried to stay, it would just overshadow whoever my successor is."

I'm not going to lie, I like Gingrich a whole lot. Should he decide to run, he'd have serious consideration for my support. However, I wonder if how his Speaker term ended would crop up and be an issue...and I wonder if this Republican Hero from the 90s still has the political power to mount a successful run so many years later. Gingrich says he plans to make a decision by the end of this month.

Mitch Daniels - Indiana governor Mitch Daniels is another name that is often batted around as a potential Republican presidential candidate, and it’s become clear of late that he is seriously considering a run himself. Given his record so far as governor, it’s easy to see why Daniels is generating buzz. In the 2008 election cycle, where the Left seemed to reign supreme just about everywhere, Daniels performed astonishingly well in Indiana, winning reelection in a landslide against an opponent heavily promoted by Obama. In 2005, he led Indiana to its first balanced budget in eight years and turned the $600 million deficit he inherited into a $300 million surplus in a single year. He used this surplus to repay hundreds of millions of dollars the State had borrowed from Indiana's public schools in previous administrations. Daniels reformed the state’s property tax in 2008, making Indiana’s among the lowest in the nation. Daniels privatized the state's toll road system...a move that, while controversial, helped the Indiana bottom line tremendously. He also privatized the welfare and state benefit process in his state.

All in all, Daniels has been a wildly successful governor in an important swing state. He has shown a particular intelligence in economic matters, turning the state deficit into a surplus in just one year! With the most popular issue looking to be the economy in the next election, this could help him garner much support. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much national name recognition. He is also not a very charismatic personality...although, after the failures of Obama, this could be seen as a plus. Keep an eye on Daniels...with national backing, he could be a real force in 2012.

Other Popular Names Being Mentioned

Tim Pawlenty – Tim Pawlenty recently finished his second and final term as Governor of Minnesota. Pawlenty calls himself a social conservative. In his extended interview with Jon Stewart on The Daily Show he said he thinks United States Social Security and Medicare need to be cut to balance the federal budget. He opposes abortion and thinks the United States Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade wrongly. He opposes same-sex marriage. He would reinstate "Don't ask, don't tell" should he become president. As governor, Pawlenty was a budget hawk. During his first year as governor, Pawlenty balanced a deficit of $4.3 billion without raising taxes, primarily by reducing the rate of funding increases for state services, including funding for transportation, social services, and welfare. During his second term, Pawlenty erased a $2.7 billion deficit by cutting spending, shifting payments and using one-time money.

Pawlenty was the leader of John McCain's presidential exploratory committee, which then transitioned into him becoming a co-chairman of McCain's campaign. It was widely speculated that he would become McCain's running mate...a job that ultimately went to Sarah Palin. This was Pawlenty's first real brush with national politics, and he remains still widely unknown. His conservative ideals would make him an attractive candidate to Republicans, and he's made some moves to suggest he's looking into running in 2012 (visits to Iowa, speeches at CPAC). However, he would need to get more national exposure if his campaign ever wants to get off the ground.

Haley Barbour – Barbour is the current governor of Mississippi, and a long time Republican party member. He serves as chairman for the Republican National Committee from 1993 to 1997, during which the Republicans took back both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. He's been governor of Mississippi since 2004, and will leave office at the end of his term this year (term limits). His time in office has been characterized by being tough on the budget, being able to work with a Democratic legislature to get his bills passed, and his widely praised response to Hurricane Katrina.

When Barbour took office, the state of Mississippi had run a $709 million budget deficit for the 2004 fiscal year. With bipartisan support, and without raising taxes, Barbour implemented a plan called Operation: Streamline to cut the budget deficit in half. He accomplished this largely by reducing spending on social services, most notably Medicaid. By 2006, the state achieved its first balanced budget in years. After Hurricane Katrina, Barbour's response was characterized by a concerted effort at evacuation, tough-minded talk on looters and an unwillingness to blame the federal government. His response was likened, favorably, to that of Rudy Giuliani in the wake of the September 11 attacks. Barbour was praised by the coast's citizens as a strong leader who can communicate calmly to the public, and provide “a central decision-making point for when things get balled up or go sideways, which they do,” as Barbour says.

Since he visited Iowa in 2009, there has been speculation that Barbour may run for the Republican nomination for U.S. President in 2012. An advisor of Barbour stated, "When he surveys what most Republicans consider to be a weak field, he sees no reason he couldn’t easily beat them. He’s a better strategist and fundraiser than any other candidate currently considering running—and just as good on television and in debates." Known for his brilliant fundraising abilities, and his intelligence and great speaking abilities, Barbour would be a force should he decide to run.

Wild Cards

Michele Bachmann - Bachmann is a member of the House of Representatives from Minnesota. She has been in office since 2007, and is the founding member of the House Tea Party Caucus. Honestly, I don't think she'll run for President, and if she does, she'll do rather poorly. However, with how successful the Tea Party was this past election, she has to be thrown into the mix. She is a fiscal conservative, stating she would never vote to increase taxes, ever. She wants to phase out Social Security and Medicare completely. She is a strong proponent of nuclear power. She does not want the U.S. to be part of the international global economy because "I don’t want the United States to be in a global economy where our economic future is bound to that of Zimbabwe..."

I dunno, I just cannot take her seriously. She's been on the national political scene so briefly, and her positions kind of seem rather extreme and uninformed. And while she has some interesting ideas that deserve discussion, like ending social security and medicare, she offers no real solutions or ideas how to accomplish this. But she'll probably be around, since she's been heading out to Iowa here and there.

Donald Trump - I wish I was just joking about this next name, but he just gave a speech at CPAC that sounded like a campaign speech, and is definitely giving thought to running for the Republican nomination in 2012. Here's what little I know about his political positions to date, for whatever that's worth:

• Pro-life
• Anti-gun control
• Advocates for the repeal and replacement of Obamacare
• Anti-foreign aid
• Believes Communist China should be treated as an enemy and subjected to large import tariffs.
• Trump contributed to Rahm Emanuel's candidacy and has refused to take a stance on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

Trump says he'll make a formal decision in June, and with his bankroll and name recognition, he could throw a real wrench into the primary season for Republicans.

Other Names that Might Pop Up

Rick Santorum - Former senator from Pennsylvania known for being rather outspoken and in your face. He's pissed off a lotta people, and lost his re-election bid for the Senate in 2006, huge - 59% to 41%...the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator since 1980. Ouch. Probably won't get anywhere.

Chris Christie - Christie is the 55th and current Governor of New Jersey. Upon his election to the governorship in November 2009, Christie became the first Republican to win a statewide election in New Jersey in 12 years. Impressive. That alone put him on the radar as a Republican who could win nationally. He's somewhat of a moderate socially...pro-life, but also pro-gun control. He states he does not intend to raise taxes, and wants to lower them...but not until the budget gets under control.

Honestly, he's a good candidate, but he JUST became governor, and has stated he has no intentions of running. However, should he succeed as governor in NJ, he could be a serious contender in 2016.

John Thune - South Dakota Senator John Thune is already a hero to many on the Right for defeating Tom Daschle in 2004. Thune has made such a name for himself that he has a 70% approval rating in South Dakota and ran unopposed this year for his second term. In spite of being the only man in the race, however, he has amassed an impressive war chest of funds and is a fundraising machine for other conservative candidates.

Thune has a stellar record, including a rating of 100 from the American Conservative Union. His rhetorical skill has been compared to Ronald Reagan, and he is seen as someone who can unite the Tea Party element of the Right with the more establishment Republicans. Though he’ll have to explain a few votes, including his support of TARP, Thune is poised to make a splash should he decide for sure to run.

Bobby Jindal - Bobby Jindal is Louisiana’s first non-white governor and the first Indian-American governor in American history. In his first major test, Jindal handled Hurricane Gustav masterfully, evacuating nursing homes and hospitals well ahead of the storm, working with New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, and making sure recovery efforts went as smoothly as could be, a stark contrast to Hurricane Katrina's handling. Jindal earned high marks for taking charge during the crisis, and he raised his national profile in the process.

Jindal has governed Louisiana conservatively in virtually every area, and on the national stage, he has been a vocal critic of President Obama at several junctures. Despite his rising-star status on the Right, and despite earlier hints that he might consider a run, Jindal is not actively looking at running for president in 2012. Luckily for him, he is young, and will definitely be a force for the Republican party in the future...and maybe could be a good running mate for a Republican nominee?