October 05, 2012

MLB Regular Season Wrap-Up


THE A’S WON THE WEST!  THE A’S WON THE WEST!!!!  HOLY CRAP, I CAN’T BELIEVE IT!!!

That was, seriously, one of the most exciting games I’ve ever been to.  Such an incredible way to spend my birthday.  Such an incredible season for the A’s.  So improbable!  This team has been so much fun to cheer for.  Amazing.


Anyways, with the season over, and the Wild Card games tonight, its time to look at the season that was.  Its been an awesome season, with plenty of amazing stories (The A’s, the Orioles, and the Nationals the best among them).  Today, I’m going to go through the various postseason awards and list out my hypothetical ballot, talk about why I would vote that way, and then give who I think WILL win.  Should be fun!  Let’s see how correct I end up being!

My AL MVP ballot
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Mike Trout
3. Adrian Beltre
4. Yoenis Cespedes
5. Justin Verlander

I’ll take Cabrera’s Triple Crown (the first in baseball since 1967…which is incredible) over Trout’s Rookie Year amazingness…but only barely.  The division crown for the Tigers probably sways me there…and the history behind the Triple Crown.  Pretty cool.  Beltre deserves to be getting more pub…he’s had a hell of a year for a very good Texas team.  Cespedes shouldn’t win, but he should get some votes.  He’s been an integral part of the A’s surprising success…they are 80-46 when he is in the lineup, 12-22 when he is out.  Valuable, eh?  Verlander gets my 5th place spot…he’s been so money this year again.

Who will win:  Cabrera (I think the allure of the Triple Crown will be hard to not vote for)

My NL MVP ballot
1. Ryan Braun
2. Buster Posey
3. Yadier Molina
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Ian Desmond

Braun’s numbers have been even better than last year…when he won the MVP.  And this season he’s doing it without the protection of Prince Fielder in the lineup.  Just an incredible follow-up campaign.  Posey has been very, very good…especially after the All Star break…but he’s been beating up on weak teams (the Giants’ schedule down the stretch has been a joke).  Stats across the board say Braun is the better player this season.  Molina’s been a rock for the Cardinals, and is, by far, the best defensive catcher in the game.  McCutchen looked like the hands down choice back in July…and then he fell off a cliff and dragged the poor Pirates with him.  Desmond has been the most valuable player for the Nationals…the NL East champs, and a surprising story themselves!

Who will win:  Posey (the media buzz around him is hard to ignore…as is Braun’s offseason steroids controversy)

My AL Cy Young ballot
1. Justin Verlander
2. David Price
3. Jered Weaver
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Joe Johnson

Verlander, Price, and Weaver have almost identical stats.  Verlander gets the nod due to his doing it for many more innings (he is always going deeper into games than anyone else in baseball), and for a playoff bound team.  What a fascinating year for pitching, though!  Felix had that incredible perfect game…and looked like the Cy Young favorite at that point…but has gotten rocked down the stretch.  Joe Johnson reached the 50 save mark this season, for an incredible Baltimore Orioles team, which is pretty impressive.

Who will win:  Verlander (For the reasons above, and he has the name and pedigree…those things seem to matter to voters)

My NL Cy Young ballot
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. R.A. Dickey
4. Craig Kimbrel
5. Johnny Cueto

Kershaw has been surprisingly overlooked this year…probably because of all that has happened around the Dodgers.  Kershaw once again has the best ERA, good innings, and has been going back and forth between leading the league in K’s with Dickey, finishing only 1 behind him.  He’s hurting for W’s, but its not his fault his team couldn’t hit for most of the season.  Gio has been the rock in a phenomenal Washington rotation.  He leads the league in wins and has the best K/9.  Dickey has the K’s and a great ERA…and has the fewest walks.  Cueto is competitive across the board.  The tiebreaker between everyone for me is FIP and xFIP…where Kershaw stacks up phenomenally to everyone else.  Kimbrel has been an incredible weapon out of the bullpen…he’s K’d half of all hitters he’s faced.  That’s domination.  Just have a hard time giving the Cy Young to a reliever when there’s great starters out there worthy of the award.

Who will win:  Kimbrel (this is the hardest call for me…I’m honestly not sure who will win…although I’m positive it won’t be Kershaw.  Kimbrel seems to be garnering the buzz right now).

My AL ROY ballot
1. Mike Trout
2. Yoenis Cespedes
3. Jarrod Parker
4. Yu Darvish
5. Matt Moore

Mike Trout is having a historic rookie season.  This will be a runaway.  He's scored more runs (127) than any rookie of the year in history, despite missing almost a month of the season. He's about to become the first 30-homer, 40-steal rookie of the year in history -- if not the first 30-50 rookie of the year in history.  Just three ROYs (Albert Pujols, Tony Oliva and Fred Lynn) have ever equaled or beaten Trout's .321/.395/.557 slash line.  The highest WAR by any ROY position player in was 8.5, by Dick Allen in 1964. Trout is at 10.5.  The best Offensive Winning Percentage by any ROY ever?  That, according to Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, was .761, by Mark McGwire in 1987. Trout beats that by 50 points.

So, yeah, Trout isn’t just the Rookie of the Year, but might be the best rookie of all time…IN ANY SPORT.  Insane.  Sucks for Cespedes, though…any normal year, he’d be the runaway winner!  His .291 average, 23 homers, 82 RBI and 16 SB for a playoff bound surprise would handily get him the award.  He should at least come in second, though…he’s been incredible.  Parker’s been an ace for the A’s down the stretch.  Darvish has been up and down, but generally quite good for the Rangers…similarly Matt Moore for the Rays.

Who will win:  Trout

My NL ROY ballot
1. Bryce Harper
2. Todd Frazier
3. Wade Miley
4. Wilin Rosario
5. Norichika Aoki

The NL Race is much, much tighter than the AL race.  Any of the 5 guys above could win it…but really, it’s a true tossup between the top three.  Frazier stepped in for the Reds when their all-world first baseman Joey Votto went down…and simply mashed!  He kept the Reds at the head of the Central and in contention for the best record in baseball while their superstar was out.  Unfortunately, he’s struggled mightily down the stretch.  Miley has been a rock for the Diamondbacks in their rotation, winning 16 games with a 3.32 ERA and 1.198 WHIP…both phenomenal numbers for a rookie.  Actually, only 6 rookies in history have made at least 28 starts and put up numbers this good…only 3 of them won the ROY.  Why?  Because hitters play every day, and have a much bigger impact on day to day games…enter Bryce Harper.  What he’s been able to do at age 19 has been incredible…one of the best seasons by a teenager ever.  He hits for average, hits for power, is a phenomenal baserunner, and a plus defender.  Also, he’s stepped up his game in September with the Nationals fighting to win the division and best record in baseball.  Only 7 rookies have put up numbers similar to Harper’s in their rookie season…6 have won the ROY.  Harper’s the choice.

Who will win:  Harper.

My AL Manager ballot
1. Bob Melvin
2. Buck Showalter
3. Robin Ventura

This is a huge homer pick, obviously…but I challenge you to find me a coach who’s done more with less…not just this season, but in MLB history.  101 rookie starts…two rookie set-up men…half their lineup is rookies.  Their starting lineup today is vastly different than the one that opened the season.  Melvin has made the right call every step of the way…who to start, who to close, who’s in the lineup and when.  He’s gotten more out of this team than anyone could have possibly imagined.  74 wins last season… 94 this season.  Just an incredible turnaround.  To be fair, Buck Showalter has done an equally impressive job with an equally unlikely team.  No one expected anything from the Orioles this year either…and their pitching was way way worse than the A’s.  But he’s pushed the right buttons, got the most out of his starters, effectively used an outstanding bullpen, and put together what’s become a rather dangerous lineup.  The Orioles have a better 1-run game winning percentage than anyone in history.  The job he’s done with, what was last year, a 69 win team, is equally incredible.  Honestly, both Showalter and Melvin deserve the award equally.  The tiebreaker to me is who I’m a fan of…I’ll be honest…but also, the A’s won their division, the Orioles did not.  Ventura is the distant third for almost getting an unheralded White Sox team to the division crown.  He just couldn’t get them over the hump.

Who will win:  Showalter (east coast bias rules the day…although maybe the AL West title will swing things to Melvin. Tough call.)

My NL Manager ballot
1. Davey Johnson
2. Mike Matheny
3. Fredi Gonzalez

Johnson, hands down, has been the manager of the year.  He brought a Nationals team that, for much of its brief history, has been terrible…and led them to the best record in baseball, a 1 seed, and the division title.  Incredible.  Matheny’s done a great job taking over for a legend in St. Louis, getting them to the playoffs despite losing their best player.  Quite a job for the new manager.  I’ll throw my third vote to Atlanta’s manager, Gonzalez…who’s led the Braves to a phenomenal season one year after one of the worst collapses in history.  Well done.

Who will win:  Johnson (easy choice).

My AL Gold Gloves
P:  CC Sabathia, NYY
C:  Matt Wieters, BAL
1B:  Adrian Gonzalez, BOS/LA
2B:  Dustin Pedroia, BOS
SS:  Brendan Ryan, SEA
3B:  Adrian Beltre, TEX
RF:  Josh Reddick, OAK
LF:  Alex Gordon, KC
CF:  Mike Trout, ANA

My NL Gold Gloves
P:  Mark Buehrle, MIA
C:  Yadier Molina, STL
1B:  Joey Votto, CIN
2B:  Mark Ellis, LAD
SS:  Clint Barmes, PIT
3B:  David Wright, NYM
CF:  Michael Bourn, ATL
RF:  Jason Heyward, ATL
LF:  Ryan Braun, MIL

Gold Gloves usually just go to the best offensive player who isn’t terrible in the field.  I tend to actually look at who is having a great season in the field.  So I’ll probably be way way off on these.  Oh well!

It was a fun regular season.  Here’s to the postseason!  Nothing better than October baseball!  Especially when I have a team to cheer for!

Go A’s!

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