The list of Republicans vying for the chance to unseat Obama as this country’s President is a long one. And, as you might expect, the polls show no particular candidate pulling away from the field. The vote is all over the place, with no candidate getting over 20 percent nationally. However, Ron Paul, despite a lack of national campaigning to date, has been rising as of late.
The most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll has Ron Paul garnering 12% support among declared and likely Republican Candidates. This would put him in a tie for 3rd, and only 5 points behind Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney. That’s a 4 point jump for Dr. Paul since the last CNN poll. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll had him at 14% support, once again in third, but this time 7 points behind Romney, and a 6 point jump for Paul over the previous Gallup poll. As the latest polls show, Ron Paul is starting to separate himself from the also rans, and is starting to emerge as a real candidate for the Republican nomination. (All polling data retrieved from RealClearPolitics).
This may come as a surprise to many who have not been following the Republican race so far…but maybe it shouldn’t. In a time when the economy is still failing, when our government is spending at record levels, and our credit rating has been dropped from AAA level for the first time ever, the electorate is starting to think that maybe spend, spend, spend isn’t the way to get us out of debt. The people are starting to believe that a small, limited, constitutional government might be the best solution for us at this time. And this is precisely what Ron Paul has been saying for his entire 30 year political career.
Over the last four years, Ron Paul has seen his political stock change from fringe presidential candidate, whose libertarian views led some to dismiss him, to prescient prognosticator, who correctly predicted the current economic situation. His philosophy of cutting spending, balancing the budget and rejecting compromise on shrinking the size of government has become a rallying cry for the Republican and tea party faithful. Every candidate today who is finally now talking about a limited government and a balanced budget have far less credibility than Dr. Paul, who has been saying these things, and voting that way, for his entire career.
The one thing Paul lacks is a solid national image. Because his libertarian views were so derided in the past, many people still think of him as somewhat of an oddity…a wacko who might have some good ideas, but really isn’t presidential material. This is an image that Paul will have to shake if he wants to take his campaign to the next level. He’s started doing that already, with his campaign gaining legitimacy after wins at the CPAC straw poll in 2010, and a second place finishing at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll. These wins show that when he gets his message out to those who live and breathe politics, he is making an impact. Now he must do this on a national scale.
His next test will be this weekend’s debate and straw poll in Ames, Iowa…the unofficial kick-off of the Republican Presidential campaign season. Ames is the first real test of where a candidate lies in their bid for the nomination. A disastrous showing for a candidate who sunk resources into it is usually the kiss of death for their campaign, while a surprise strong showing has catapulted relatively unknown candidates into the national spotlight (like it did for Mike Huckabee last time around).
Ron Paul has sunk a lot into the Iowa Straw Poll this time around. He has paid money to get the best booth position in Ames. He has spent money to get on the airwaves in Iowa, flooding the Iowa airwaves with $100,000 worth of ads highlighting his experience, which supporters argue sets him apart from the others in the field. And it appears to be working. In the latest Rasmussen poll in Iowa, he is currently sitting in 3rd with 16% of support. Mitt Romney is in second in the poll, at 21%, but he is skipping the event, and his support in this straw poll will likely suffer. Michelle Bachmann is currently leading in this poll at 22%...but depending on which way Romney’s poll supporters lean in his absence, Ron Paul has a very real shot to win the Iowa Straw Poll and gain instant national recognition.
Personally, I think Ron Paul’s intellect and ideas about the economy are exactly what this country needs right now (just so we’re clear, I do have an agenda in writing this piece). Now it is up to Dr. Paul to convince the rest of the country that he does as well. This weekend in Iowa will be an important test for him. Will his star rise, or will he sink back with the also rans?
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